Grading Undergrad Papers

When tackling a pile of 57 undergrad papers that currently range from a low of 50, to a high of 97, a mind wonders to find other distractions.  Like the collapse of civilizations?  Will 2010 be the 72 year Hurricane that hits the New York City Region?

With over 1500 miles of coastline, and four out of five boroughs as islands, the NYC region is considered to be the second most vulnerable US city to hurricanes (following Miami, FL). Below are examples of "close calls" in recent NYC history (source: http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem)

“In 1821, when a major hurricane made a direct hit on Manhattan, stunned residents recorded sea levels rising as fast as thirteen feet in a single hour down where there is now Battery Park City. Everything was flooded south of Canal Street. The storm struck at low tide, though, and, according to Queens College professor Nicholas Coch, a coastal geologist who calls himself a ‘forensic hurricanologist,’ that’s ‘the only thing that saved the city.’

The next was the night of August 23, 1893, when a terrifying Category 2 hurricane made landfall on the swamp that is now JFK airport. The hurricane was a major event. All six front-page columns of the August 25, 1893, New York Times were dedicated to the ‘unexampled fury’ of the ‘West Indian monster.’

The next big one came a little ahead of schedule, the ‘Long Island Express’ of 1938, with 183-mile-per-hour winds. At the time, Long Island wasn’t a densely populated suburban sprawl. The same hurricane today would cause incredible havoc.

Hurricane Carol, a Category 3 storm that hit eastern Long Island and came ashore in Connecticut in 1954, mostly missed the city (even as it inundated downtown Providence, Rhode Island, under twelve feet of water).”

So numerically:

1821 “direct hit on Manhattan”

1821 to 1893 = 72 years West Indian Monster Category 2 at "JFK" swamp

1893 to 1938 = 45 years Long Island Express Category 5

1938 to 1954 = 16 years Hurricane Carol Category 3

1893 to 1954 = 61 years Hurricane Carol Category 3

1938 + 72 years = 2010 will this be the year?

And if in the colder weather ? October 9, 1804 — Heavy snow falls in Eastern New York peaking at 30 inches (75 cm) as a hurricane tracks northward along the East Coast and becomes extratropical, as cold air fed into the system.

Haiti has not had an earthquake of the current magnitude since 1948. `It could have been the next day, it could have been 10 years, it could have been 100,'' said Miami geophysicist and earthquake expert Dr. Tim Dixon. ``This is not an exact science.'' (The Miami Herald, Sunday 2-21-2010)

The island of Hispaniola, shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic, is seismically active and has a history of destructive earthquakes. During Haiti's time as a French colony, earthquakes were recorded by French historian Moreau de Saint-Méry (1750–1819). He described damage done by an earthquake in 1751, writing that "only one masonry building had not collapsed" in Port-au-Prince; he also wrote that the "whole city collapsed" in the 1770 Port-au-Prince earthquake. Cap-Haïtien, other towns in the north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and the Sans-Souci Palace were destroyed during an earthquake on 7 May 1842. A magnitude 8.0 earthquake struck the Dominican Republic and shook Haiti on 4 August 1946, producing a tsunami that killed 1,790 people and injured many others.

In the winter of 1811-1812, the central Mississippi Valley was struck by three of the most powerful earthquakes in U. S. history. Even today, this region has more earthquakes than any other part of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains.

In December of 1811, the largest earthquake ever recorded in American History started. This earthquake, called the New Madrid Earthquake because of its primary location on the New Madrid Fault, near New Madrid, Missouri. From the effects of the 1811-1812 earthquakes, it can be estimated that they had a magnitude of 8.0 or higher on the not yet invented Richter scale. Large areas sank into the earth, new lakes were formed, and strong enough to cause the nearby Mississippi River to temporarily flow backward.

A newfound earthquake fault in Arkansas could eventually be the site of a major earthquake that would rock much of the south and east, according to news reports. A major gas pipeline is said to be near the fault and at risk.

The alarm bell is similar to many sounded in recent years.

In August, scientists said the New York City area is at "substantially greater" risk of earthquakes than previously thought. The Indian Point nuclear power plants, 24 miles north of the city, sits astride the previously unidentified intersection of two active seismic zones, the researchers noted.

In general, geologists warn that large earthquakes are rare East of the Rocky Mountains, but they do occur and are bound to prove devastating.

The threats are real, but the timing is impossible to predict.

 A newfound fault is about 100 miles east of Little Rock, according to The Associated Press. It is separate from the New Madrid fault that caused a series of devastating earthquakes in 1811 and 1812, all centered in Mississippi Valley.

A handful of roughly magnitude 5 quakes, considered moderate, have been triggered by the New Madrid fault network in recent years, and scientists say it's only a matter of time before another major one strikes that zone.

The New Madrid quakes in the early 1800s, for example, were felt from the Rockies to Boston.

Also, many structures in the Midwest, East and South are not as well designed as those in the quake-prone West. Buildings in the New Madrid fault region constructed before modern building codes were put in place typically are not retrofitted, as is common in California.

History shows what even moderate quakes can do in the East.

A 5.0 temblor in 1737 knocked down chimneys in New York City and was felt from Boston to Philadelphia. A magnitude-5.5 quake in 1884 did similar damage in a wider region around New York. Another quake in this range struck in 1783.

Based on history, researchers say quakes at least 5.0 in magnitude should be expected, on average, about every 100 years.

"Today, with so many more buildings and people, a magnitude 5 centered below [New York City] would be extremely attention-getting," says John Armbruster of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. "We'd see billions in damage, with some brick buildings falling. People would probably be killed."

So as Professor Doom and Gloom should I continue grading papers?  Or training volunteers and responders for what will surely have the potential to exceed Haiti, the Long Island Express, Katrina, and other major natural disasters combined.